Retail Demand Forecasting Platform cover
All work

2024

Retail Demand Forecasting Platform

A hierarchical forecasting system that predicts SKU-level demand across 900 stores two weeks out.

Overview

Replaced a spreadsheet-driven planning process with a probabilistic forecasting platform. Modelled demand at the store-SKU grain with a temporal fusion transformer, then reconciled forecasts up the product and region hierarchy so store, category, and national numbers always agree. Backtested against three years of sales, quantified prediction intervals for safety-stock decisions, and exposed the outputs through a self-serve dashboard the planning team owns.

Role & impact

My role

Senior data scientist — forecasting models and evaluation.

Impact

Cut forecast error (WMAPE) from 31% to 12% and lowered excess inventory holding costs by 18%.

Stack

PythonPyTorchDartsPandasBigQuerydbt