Subscriber Churn Prediction Engine cover
All work

2024

Subscriber Churn Prediction Engine

A gradient-boosted churn model that scores every subscriber nightly and feeds a retention playbook.

Overview

Owned an end-to-end churn modelling system for a subscription business with 3.4M active users. Engineered 180+ behavioural features from event logs in Spark, trained and calibrated a gradient-boosted ensemble, and shipped nightly batch scoring into the CRM. Built SHAP-based explanations so the retention team could see why each account was flagged, and ran a two-arm holdout to prove incremental lift rather than correlation. Wired drift monitors on the top features so silent data shifts page us before the model rots.

Role & impact

My role

Lead data scientist — features, modelling, and deployment.

Impact

Reduced monthly voluntary churn by 23% and returned an estimated $4.1M in annualised retained revenue.

Stack

PythonXGBoostSparkSQLSHAPAirflow